Key points
- Reform UK to launch 'contract with the people' today
- Minister admits Tory election win 'not the most likely outcome'
- Labour signal Brexit deal could be revised | Tories take aim at energy policy
- Warning that250,000 children hit by two-child benefit cap next year
- Live reporting by Faith Ridler
Election essentials
- Check parties' manifesto pledges:Conservatives|Greens|Labour|Lib Dems|Plaid Cymru
- Trackers:Who's leading polls?|Is PM keeping promises?
- Campaign Heritage:Memorable moments from elections gone by
- Follow Sky's politics podcasts:Electoral Dysfunction|Politics At Jack And Sam's
- Read more:Who is standing down?|Key seats to watch|How to register to vote|What counts as voter ID?|Check if your constituency is changing|Your essential guide to election lingo|Sky's election night plans
Labour rules out tax rises, claiming all policies are 'fully costed'
Labour has reiterated that there will be "no increase" to income tax, national insurance or VAT if the party wins the general election in July.
Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow paymaster general, said the three taxes will not go up, despite claims from the Conservatives that they could.
He said: "Every single one our policies is fully costed and doesn't require additional taxation."
When pressed, Mr Ashworth stresses that Labour will not be involved in "council tax re-banding" - but will not specifically rule out a rise in fuel or stamp duty.
Politics at Jack and Sam's: The Day... Nigel Farage launches his 'manifesto'
Sky News' deputy political editor Sam Coates and Politico's Jack Blanchard with their guide to the election day ahead.
This is day 26 of the campaign. Jack and Sam discuss Reform’s manifesto launch, the Conservatives’ changing tack for the final two weeks of campaigning,and Labour’s plan for the first 100 days.
Email Jack and Sam: jackandsam@sky.uk
👉Tap here to follow Politics at Jack and Sam's wherever you get your podcasts👈
What the polls tell us about what will happen on 4 July
By Professor Will Jennings, Sky News elections analyst
Even a poll-obsessive like me would have to admit that during election campaigns we often spend too much time focusing on the election 'horse race' - who is up and who is down in the polls - on an almost hourly basis.
Even in this election, where Labour has been well ahead of the Conservatives from the outset, the focus has been on how much.
Figures for the Labour lead span a huge range from 16 to 25 points. And now there's talk of "crossover".
Has Nigel Farage led Reform past the Tories into second place for the first time in a general election campaign?
There's a 10-point difference between pollsters in the figures reported for Reform UK starting at nine points and reaching 19.
The unprecedented nature of what the top end of these results suggest means we could be heading for a seismic reordering of the political landscape on 4 July. Alternatively, many pollsters could end up with egg on their faces.
What lessons can we learn from polling at previous British general elections?
Perhaps the most fundamental thing is that polls become more informative about the result as election day nears.
Read the full analysis below:
'This is the immigration election'
Dr David Bull, the deputy leader of Reform UK, joined Sky News this morning ahead of the release of the party's "contract" - or manifesto - later today.
He said the election on 4 July is "the immigration election".
Dr Bull added: "Some 2.5 million people have come here in the last two years, it is impossible to see a doctor - schools, housing, all the rest of it.
"We have an absolute crisis in the NHS and our outcomes are terrible when you compare them to the rest of Europe.
"What we need to do is radically reform the way our NHS is provided."
Asked if Reform UK's policies have been costed, Dr Bull claimed the party has "definitely" spoken to the Office for Budget Responsibility.
"We will have done, because Richard Tice has been over the detail of this," he added.
But how would Reform UK enforce one in, one out "net zero" migration?
Dr Bull said: "It's up to the government, isn't it?"
Pressed, he said: "We can't force people out of the country".
The deputy leader appeared to suggest this would happen naturally.
Minister admits Tory election win 'not the most likely outcome'
Grant Shapps has admitted that it is unlikely the Tories will win at the general election on 4 July - but has insisted it remains a possibility.
The defence secretary told Times Radio it is "possible to win the election", but conceded that it is "not the most likely outcome", adding: "I'm a realist."
Asked if a Tory victory was unlikely he replied: "I think that's the realistic position, isn't it?
"I mean, I live in the real world. So you know, let's not try and pretend black is white."
Mr Shapps also said he stands by the comments he made last week that Labour could secure a "supermajority".
He said: "We're still fighting for absolutely every single vote, which is absolutely the right thing to do and warning of the dangers of Labour.
"But what I said last week stands, a blank cheque, a supermajority is a dangerous thing, particularly when we already know they have these plans to change the council tax bands."
Minister warns Labour government would mean 'more taxes'
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has today warned that a Labour government would be "very bad news", claiming it would mean "higher taxes for everyone".
Asked about a poll which suggested the Conservatives will only have 72 seats in the next parliament, the minister said: "No one has voted yet".
He told Sky News: "Opinion polls are a snapshot at that moment in time, and as we discovered in previous years - they're not always right either."
Mr Shapps went on to warn that a Labour government would be "very dangerous for this country".
He said: "We can't risk having a Labour government at all."
The minister claimed this would be "very bad news", and mean "higher taxes for everyone" on homes, cars and pensions.
"Lets make the warning loud and clear that more taxes are coming from Labour if they win," he said.
In the marginal seat of North East Fife, it's all to play for
By Ashna Hurynag, news correspondent
In the marginal seat of North East Fife in this election, it is not a straight fight between red and blue, but shades of yellow too.
In 2017, the SNP won here by just two votes ahead of the Scottish Liberal Democrats. That astonishing two-vote tipping point made it the UK's most marginal seat at the time.
But in 2019, the Lib Dems won it from the SNP, giving the party one of its four MPs in Scotland.
Today, Lib Dem posters line the winding road that takes you to Anstruther's waterfront.
It's a charming fishing village and overlooking the harbour are quaint restaurants and gift shops - handmade soap, whisky and fresh fish - it's all on offer.
With this allure comes a melee of tourists who join us as we hop to each business, talking to them about how the campaigns have resonated with them here.
You can read Ashna's eyewitness report in full below:
Poll tracker: Reform trail Tories as they prepare to launch 'contract'
Our live poll tracker collates the results of opinion surveys carried out by all the main polling organisations - and allows you to see how the political parties are performing in the run-up to the general election.
So far, only one poll has shown Reform ahead of the Conservatives - the Tories are currently an average of 7 points ahead of Nigel Farage's party.
Read more about the tracker here.
Two-child cap to hit extra 670,000 children in next five years, thinktank warns
By Alexandra Rogers, political reporter
An extra 250,000 children will be hit by the two-child benefit cap next year, rising to an extra half a million by 2029, a leading thinktank has warned.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the number of children who will fall under the cap - which limits child benefits for the first two children in most households - will reach 670,000 by the end of the next parliament if the policy is not reformed.
The two-child benefit cap, which restricts Child Tax Credit and Universal Credit to the first two children, was brought in by the Conservative government in 2017.
Campaigners have long called for it to be abolished on the grounds it would lift thousands of children out of poverty.
When Sir Keir Starmer was running to become Labour leader, he said the two-child limit must be scrapped - before saying last July that Labour was "not changing" the Tory policy.
The Green Party and the Lib Dems have both pledged to abolish the measure.
It comes as a separate study from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) found 40% of people who work in primary schools and GP surgeries have considered quitting their job because of a "shameful" level of hardship among the population.
You can read more below:
Labour signal Brexit deal could be revised as they kick off economy-focused campaign week
Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, will today highlight Labour's plans to boost investment by breaking down EU trade barriers as she kicks off a week of campaigning on the economy.
The Labour Party will also today pledge to create 650,000 new jobs with its £7.3bn new National Wealth Fund, which it says will focus on Britain's "industrial heartlands".
And the shadow chancellor has suggested she could revise parts of Boris Johnson's 2020 Brexit deal, including seeking closer alignment with EU rules in the chemicals and veterinary sectors, better touring rights for UK artists, and greater mutual recognition of qualifications for financial services workers.
She said this was not an "exclusive" list, telling the Financial Times: "We would look to improve our trading relationship with Europe.
"I don't think anyone voted Leave because they were not happy that chemicals regulations were the same across Europe."
These remarks appear to suggest that Labour would go further than previously thought in pushing for improved trade terms with the bloc, having so far been hesitant to discuss Brexit during the election campaign.
Ms Reeves expected to make a campaign visit with Sir Keir Starmer today to promote their National Wealth Fund proposal.
The party has pledged to invest £7.3bn in the fund over the course of the next parliament if it wins the general election to help create 650,000 new jobs.
